Utterly Meaningless » Blog Archive » OT: SECOND VERSE, SAME AS THE FIRST

    Filed at 6:56 am under by dcobranchi

    It’s a pretty sad state of affairs that I reflexively believe that the IAEA* is right and our elected officials are wrong. But I do.

    I try not to get too blatantly partisan here at HE&OS, but war is serious business. War with Iran is WAY serious. We have an election coming up in less than 2 months. One party seems to want that new, new war something fierce. I’d rather they finish the two they’ve already got on their hands before starting a third.

    *This has nothing to do with the fact that the IAEA keeps showing up in my referrer logs. Seriously.

    4 Responses to “OT: SECOND VERSE, SAME AS THE FIRST”

    Comment by
    Nance Confer
    September 15th, 2006
    at 10:00 am

    The current administration doesn’t have a way to finish either war, though.

    They just have “stay the course.”


    Comment by
    September 15th, 2006
    at 1:24 pm

    Options with Iran:

    1- Don’t stand in their way as they increase the power of their regional hegemony, but do business with them.

    2- Stand in their way, but still do business with them.

    3- Stand in their way, don’t do business.

    4- Don’t stand in their way, don’t do business.

    There is a long list of diverse ways to stand in their way, each with associated costs, risks, possible benefits, possible consequences. Military action is on this list, pretty much near the bottom, since the risks and consequenses are rather dire in the short term.

    Not standing in their way also entailes costs, risks, and possible benefits and consequences.

    It’s my experience that the majority of folks who advocates option 4, do so from a position of ignorance. Plenty of warmongering fools advocate #3, but plenty of smart people with sound arguments do too.

    I tend to be in the #2 camp myself, because I world players communicate, plan, and interact with each other in ways we just don’t hear about in the news.

    Comment by
    Scott W. Somerville
    September 15th, 2006
    at 3:47 pm

    My best-case scenario for Iran would make you laugh, Daryl, because it’s predicated on the success of a fragile but stabilizing multi-ethnic government in Iraq. IF such a thing were possible (and I know you think it isn’t), Iran and Iraq would wind up looking like East Germany and West Germany. Iranian Shi’ites would routinely travel across the border to visit shrines in Iraq… and then go party in Baghdad.

    OK, OK… I know… and Iranian agents would be right there with them, doing everything they know how to destabilize the Iraqi democracy. (Just like East Germany and West Germany.)

    If Iran is five years away from getting a bomb and Iraq holds together, I think we might be able to make it out of the woods.

    Comment by
    September 15th, 2006
    at 4:34 pm

    The difference Scott is that the people of East and West Germany never hated each other. The division was artificial and imposed by government. The divisions in the middle east go way way back, and if not originally predicated on hatred, have certainly led to it.